Good news, bad news: U.S. emissions shrank last year, but very slowly

Carbon emissions shrank in 2023 even as the economy grew, a sign the U.S. is plodding toward a more sustainable future.

Greenhouse gas emissions fell by about 1.9% in 2023, according to a preliminary analysis from the Rhodium Group, which tracks the U.S. progress toward its climate goals and provides yearly reports. The economy grew by about 2.4%.

“This is the first time since 2019 that the economy has grown while emissions have fallen,” said Ben King, an associate director leading the Rhodium Group energy team.

The modest emissions reduction represents progress, but also shows that U.S. climate goals remain far-fetched without additional ambition at the highest levels of government and industry.

U.S emissions fell sharply in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic, when activities were restricted, and then rebounded in the two years that followed.

Overall, yearly greenhouse gas emissions are now about 17% lower than they were in 2005. The Biden administration, which rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement in 2021, said it would target emission cuts of 50% to 52% by 2030.

“If we want to keep the U.S.’s Paris targets in sight, which is cutting our 2005 emissions levels in half by 2030, we would need to see a tripling of that 2% decline last year every year until 2030,” King said of last year’s results. “Another push is needed to put the U.S. on the right track and show global leadership.”

In Paris in 2015, world leaders agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to aim for 1.5 degrees above what average temperatures were in preindustrial times. Since then, many countries have struggled to cut fossil fuels from their economies, and efforts remain off the necessary pace to limit warming. A November report from the Stockholm Environment Institute found that the world’s governments in 2030 planned to produce about 70% more fossil fuels than it would take to limit warming to 2 degrees C.