The year 2023 has been challenging for moderates who hope for a return to normalcy in politics. Despite the talk of a third-party effort, politicians and their constituents still appear to be in a no-compromise mood, making it difficult for moderating forces in the Senate like Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to return after 2024.
The bases of both parties are still gravitating to the extremes, leaving swing voters to make up the difference in competitive elections. Meanwhile, moderates who seek compromise are not being rewarded politically for their efforts.
A new poll by GOP firm co/efficient found that Manchin is trailing Governor Jim Justice by 14 points. Manchin’s support of President Biden’s pared-back Inflation Reduction Act has fueled his declining support back home. Similarly, Sinema, who has been doing a rare round of interviews, has consistently polled in third place in early public polling testing a three-way matchup against leading Republicans and Rep. Ruben Gallego.
In North Carolina, a new partisan gerrymander is likely after a state Supreme Court ruling, jeopardizing the prospects of some of the most-moderate Democratic lawmakers in the House. Reps. Kathy Manning, Jeff Jackson, and Don Davis are at risk of losing their seats if the GOP supermajority in the state legislature passes a partisan map to lock in a GOP advantage.
On the other side, the 18 House Republican majority-makers who won districts Biden carried in 2020 are looking newly vulnerable with the growing likelihood of Trump as the 2024 nominee. Biden won five of the 18 GOP-held districts by double-digit margins, which alone is the margin of the House GOP majority.
A liberal nonprofit group, Unrig Our Economy, is airing over $1 million in ads targeting Biden-district freshman Reps. John Duarte, Brandon Williams, and Marc Molinaro for their support of the GOP debt ceiling legislation, betting that the proposal to cut spending as part of a debt ceiling hike will be unpopular with swing voters.
The bottom line is that it’s possible that there won’t be many bipartisan dealmakers left in Washington after 2024. The one best check against the extremes is the growing possibility of continued divided control of Washington. Republicans have a strong shot at retaking the Senate, while Democrats have a fighting chance to win back the House thanks to the GOP’s tenuous majority margin.
Primary Source:
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