Recent polls show Donald Trump’s lead has decreased significantly in Arkansas and Oklahoma, two states he easily won in 2016 and 2020. A Hendrix College poll (September 5-6) revealed Trump leading Kamala Harris by 15 points in Arkansas, a stark drop from his 28-point margin in 2020. In Oklahoma, a SoonerPoll (August 24-31) showed Trump up by 16 points, down from a 33-point win.
Nationally, Harris holds a slim 2.5-point lead according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. North Carolina is seen as a toss-up, with Trump leading by 0.9 points in recent surveys. Other battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, are narrowly contested after being won by Biden in 2020.
Democrats are focusing on traditionally Republican states like Florida, Texas, and Ohio, aiming to gain ground where Senate races are also competitive. However, Trump is still expected to win most of these states in November, despite the smaller margins.
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