Voter registration shifts in three battleground states—Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada—signal potential challenges for Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential campaign. Democrats have seen their registration advantage decrease, driven by what experts describe as low enthusiasm for the Biden administration and the party.
In Pennsylvania, Democrats’ advantage has shrunk by over 300,000 voters since 2020. Berwood Yost of Franklin & Marshall College attributes this to voter disenchantment, particularly in swing counties like Erie and Bucks. Similarly, in North Carolina, Democrats’ lead over Republicans has dropped by two-thirds since 2020. While the GOP has made gains, the surge of unaffiliated voters complicates predictions, with many younger voters registering independently of either party.
Arizona shows a notable shift, with Republicans doubling their registration advantage since 2020, reflecting nationwide trends favoring the GOP. Despite this, Democrats maintain a slim lead in Nevada, although their margin has also narrowed.
Republican strategists point to successful grassroots efforts and a growing national registration gap favoring their party, with over 1.2 million more Republicans and 800,000 fewer Democrats registered since 2022.
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