The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) informed Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) Monday that if temporary tax breaks in Donald Trump‘s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act are made permanent, the U.S. deficit could grow by nearly $5 trillion over the next decade.
Merkley had requested an estimate for 10 soon-to-expire provisions, including a $6,000 senior deduction, exemptions on tipped income up to $25,000, deductions for U.S.-made auto loans, and tax relief on overtime pay. The CBO found these changes alone would increase primary deficits by $789 billion from 2025–2034.
Debt servicing on that amount would add another $718 billion, leading to a projected 11.5 percentage point jump in publicly held debt relative to GDP by 2034.
Merkley blasted the findings, saying, “This bill explodes the debt by trillions of dollars to fund tax breaks for billionaires,” calling it hypocritical from a party that claims fiscal responsibility.
The analysis raises alarms as Republicans push to lock in the bill’s provisions permanently, potentially reshaping tax policy and long-term debt outlooks.
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