The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts U.S. deaths will surpass births by 2033, seven years earlier than estimated in its 2024 report. The 2025 CBO demographic outlook projects slower population growth due to lower fertility, aging demographics, and reduced immigration levels.
The U.S. population is expected to grow from 350 million in 2025 to 372 million by 2054, a decrease from the 383 million previously forecast for 2054. The annual growth rate will drop from 0.4% between 2025 and 2035 to 0.1% from 2036 to 2055, compared to 0.9% average growth from 1975 to 2024.
Immigration remains a crucial factor in population trends. The report notes that without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to shrink in 2033, as fertility rates are too low to sustain replacement levels. Recent executive orders by President Biden in 2024 have also contributed to reduced net immigration projections.
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