Washington, DC — Republicans could gain nearly 200 state legislative seats across the South if the U.S. Supreme Court significantly weakens a core provision of the Voting Rights Act, according to a new analysis that is raising alarms among voting rights advocates.
The report, released Monday by Fair Fight Action in partnership with the Black Voters Matter Fund, examines the potential fallout from the Supreme Court case Louisiana v. Callais. While the dispute centers on Louisiana’s congressional map, the court’s ruling could have sweeping implications for redistricting nationwide if it undermines Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits racial discrimination in voting.
Section 2 has long limited lawmakers’ ability to draw districts that dilute the political power of minority voters. The court’s conservative majority has signaled openness to narrowing those protections, a move that analysts say would disproportionately affect Southern states with large Black populations and Republican-controlled legislatures.
According to the analysis, Democrats could lose approximately 191 state legislative seats if Section 2 is effectively gutted. Many of those districts are currently represented by Black lawmakers elected from majority-minority districts. The report estimates that the number of such districts in 10 Southern states would fall from 342 to 202. Those states include Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Texas, and several others across the region.
Voting rights advocates warn the impact would extend beyond statehouses, potentially affecting local governments such as city councils, school boards, and county commissions. Republicans, meanwhile, argue that Section 2 has been interpreted too broadly by courts and unfairly constrains map-drawing authority.
The Supreme Court heard arguments in October, and a decision is expected in the coming months. If the ruling sharply limits Section 2, it could reshape political power across the South for a generation.
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