SACRAMENTO, Calif. — The University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted ratings for 12 California congressional races Wednesday, moving 11 toward Democrats and one toward Republicans after voters approved Proposition 50, a ballot measure allowing lawmakers to redraw congressional maps ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
Democratic incumbents including Reps. Jim Costa, Adam Gray, Josh Harder, Doug LaMalfa, Dave Min, Derek Tran, and George Whitesides all saw improved reelection prospects under the new map. Meanwhile, Republican Reps. Darrell Issa and David Valadao are now in toss-up contests, down from GOP-leaning ratings.
Rep. Young Kim was the only California Republican to retain a “safe” rating. The redistricting initiative temporarily bypasses the state’s independent map-drawing system — a response to Texas Republicans’ recent redistricting plan that could add up to five GOP-held seats.
Analysts say California’s shift could play a major role in determining control of the U.S. House, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority. Similar redistricting efforts are underway in Ohio, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, and Indiana.
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