ALBANY, NY — New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a commanding early advantage in the 2026 governor’s race, leading Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik by 19 points, according to a new Siena College poll that highlights shifting voter sentiment across the state.
The survey finds Hochul ahead of Stefanik 49% to 30% in a hypothetical general election matchup. Hochul also posts an even wider lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the other prominent Republican contender, by a 50% to 25% margin. Democratic voters overwhelmingly prefer Hochul, while Republican voters remain divided between Stefanik and Blakeman.
The poll suggests improving political standing for Hochul after a difficult period earlier in her term. Her favorability rating now stands at 43% favorable to 41% unfavorable, with 52% of voters approving of her job performance. By contrast, Stefanik’s favorability dropped to 22% favorable and 33% unfavorable, with more than 40% of voters saying they do not know enough about her to form an opinion.
Voters expressed mixed views on New York’s direction. While 44% said the state is on the right track, 45% believe it is falling behind other states, underscoring persistent concerns about affordability. Still, the poll shows strong support for progressive economic policies, including a proposal to tax New Yorkers earning more than $1 million annually to fund universal childcare, which drew 65% support.
The Siena poll surveyed 801 registered voters between Dec. 8 and Dec. 12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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