SACRAMENTO, California — California Gov. Gavin Newsom holds a narrow three-point lead over Vice President J.D. Vance in an early hypothetical matchup for the 2028 presidential election, according to a new Overton Insights poll. The survey of 1,200 registered voters found 22% view Newsom as the current leader of the Democratic Party, though former Vice President Kamala Harris remains the favorite among Democratic respondents.
Among the 399 Democrats surveyed, Harris received 35% support, followed by Newsom at 23%, and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg each at 7%. “After moderating his image and owning up to some past mistakes, Newsom’s offensive against President Trump appears to be working,” said Poll Director Mark Cunningham, noting Newsom still trails Harris “by double digits.”
On the Republican side, Vance led the field with 34%, ahead of Donald Trump Jr. (22%), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (12%), Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (8%), and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (7%).
The poll also found 40% of respondents feel “politically homeless,” while half still identify with one of the two major parties.
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