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ALBANY, N.Y. — Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 20-point lead over Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in a potential 2026 general election matchup, according to a new Siena College poll released Tuesday. The survey of roughly 800 likely voters found Hochul ahead 52–32%, despite a five-point drop in her favorability since September.

Hochul also maintains a commanding advantage in a possible Democratic primary, leading Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado 56–16%. Pollster Steven Greenberg said Hochul continues to dominate among Democratic voters, holding a 78–9% edge, while Stefanik has expanded her support among Republicans to 79–11%. Among independents, Hochul’s lead has narrowed to 40–36%, down from 43–25% two months earlier.

Regionally, Hochul has a strong 42-point lead in New York City but a slimmer nine-point advantage in the downstate suburbs and a three-point edge upstate. Stefanik, who launched her gubernatorial bid two weeks ago, has sharply criticized Hochul and attempted to link her to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s progressive platform. She may face a primary challenge from Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

Hochul, who became governor in 2021 following Andrew Cuomo’s resignation and won a full term in 2022, announced last year she would seek reelection. Delgado entered the race in July.

The poll also found Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s favorability tumbling across party lines, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains strongly popular among Democrats and New York City voters.


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