Albany, New York — A new poll suggests New York’s 2026 governor’s race could be far more competitive than expected, with Rep. Elise Stefanik trailing Gov. Kathy Hochul by just three points in an early hypothetical matchup. The survey, conducted Nov. 9–10 by independent research firm J.L. Partners, found Hochul leading 46% to 43% among 500 likely voters, with 11% undecided.
The poll indicates Stefanik holds a commanding lead in a potential GOP primary, topping Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 74% to 5%. Blakeman is expected to formally launch his bid soon, according to a source familiar with the emerging primary field.
Voters were split on Hochul’s job performance: 40% strongly or somewhat approved, while 54% disapproved. Stefanik’s favorability numbers were similarly mixed — 37% viewed her very or somewhat favorably, and 32% unfavorably. The survey’s margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.
Stefanik formally entered the governor’s race last week. A strong ally of President Trump, she previously chaired the House GOP conference from 2021 to 2025. Earlier this year, Trump nominated her to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, but the nomination was pulled amid concerns her vote would be needed in Congress.
The tight early polling suggests a potentially competitive general election if Stefanik emerges from the Republican primary, a rare dynamic in deep-blue New York.
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