PHOENIX, Arizona — A new Emerson College Polling survey finds Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) in a razor-tight race with multiple Republican challengers as she seeks a second term in 2026, highlighting the competitiveness of a state President Donald Trump carried by nearly six points last November. The results show Hobbs essentially tied in several hypothetical matchups, suggesting a volatile landscape heading into next year’s campaign.
In a matchup with developer Karrin Taylor Robson, Hobbs receives 43 percent support to Taylor Robson’s 42 percent, with 15 percent undecided — well within the poll’s 3.3-point margin of error. Hobbs also posts a narrow 44–43 percent edge over Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), with 13 percent undecided. Against Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Hobbs leads 44–40 percent, slightly outside the margin of error, though 16 percent of voters remain undecided.
Among Republican primary voters, Biggs is the clear early frontrunner, earning 50 percent support. Taylor Robson follows with 17 percent, and Schweikert sits at 8 percent, with about a quarter of GOP voters still undecided. The poll notes Biggs performs strongest with voters over 60 and among those who backed Trump in 2024.
Voters rate the economy as their top issue at 34 percent, followed by immigration at 18 percent and threats to democracy at 11 percent. Hobbs, who narrowly defeated Kari Lake in 2022, is widely viewed as one of the most at-risk Democratic incumbents up for reelection.
The survey was conducted Nov. 8–10 among 850 registered voters.
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