10 House districts that are sure to change after census release

Texas’ 22nd District will look almost nothing like it does now after redistricting in the next few months.

The Houston-area district represented by freshman Republican Troy Nehls grew by more than 200,000 people since lawmakers drew the state’s maps in 2010 and is now home to 972,000, according to 2020 census results released Thursday. Almost every district in the country will change somewhat as a result of in-state population shifts, and the average congressional district will get larger by population.

Some districts, however, stand out by how much their populations grew or declined.

That’s especially true for those in states that are gaining or losing congressional seats following the reapportionment of the 435-member House. Texas gets two new seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each gained one. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will each lose a seat.

Initial demographic data provided by the Census Bureau showed that the fastest growth over the past decade came from metropolitan areas, with larger counties tending to gain people while smaller counties were more likely to see losses.

Additionally, most of that growth came from minority populations; Americans describing themselves as white and no other race dropped below 60 percent of the population for the first time in the nation’s history.

Here’s a look at 10 districts that are very likely to change as state legislators or commissions try to get their House districts as close to equal in population as possible. This analysis does not include North Carolina because its map was redrawn in 2020 by court order, and data released Thursday could not be quickly compared to the 2010 census.

Texas’ 3rd, 10th, 22nd and 26th districts

Suburbs of Texas’ major cities — Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and Houston — host some of the fastest-growing congressional districts in the country. Four of them now have at least 900,000 residents, all stretching across the suburbs of major cities.

When drawing the state’s new congressional map, the Republican-controlled Legislature will have to make every district roughly the same size, at about 763,000 people. That means taking more than 200,000 people out of Nehls’ 22nd District, south and west of Houston, and almost as many from the GOP-held 3rd District (Van Taylor), 10th (Michael McCaul) and 26th (Michael C. Burgess).

The new districts lines will also have to take into account the growth of the Hispanic or Latino population, which is nearly the largest demographic group in the state at 39.3 percent compared with white Texans at 39.7 percent.