Over a year before the October 7 terrorist attack, Israeli officials had obtained Hamas’ detailed battle plan but dismissed it as overly ambitious. The 40-page document, named “Jericho Wall,” precisely described the attack that resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths. It detailed a methodical assault on the Gaza Strip fortifications, capturing Israeli cities, and targeting key military bases.
The New York Times reviewed the translated document, which did not specify an attack date but outlined a comprehensive strategy, including a rocket barrage, drones to disable security cameras, and gunmen entering Israel using various means. The plan also revealed sensitive information about Israeli military forces and communication hubs, raising concerns about intelligence leaks within Israel.
Despite widespread circulation among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, the plan was deemed beyond Hamas’ capabilities. It’s unclear if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other top political figures were aware of the document. A military assessment from the Israeli military’s Gaza division, responsible for defending the border with Gaza, indicated uncertainty about Hamas’ intentions.
In July, three months before the attack, an analyst from Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, noted a Hamas training exercise mirroring the plan. However, her concerns were dismissed by a colonel in the Gaza division.
The attack’s execution, as foreseen in the document, caught the Israeli military unprepared, marking the deadliest day in Israel’s history. Israeli security officials have admitted their failure to protect the country, and a commission is expected to investigate the events leading up to the attack. The oversight was partly due to a belief that Hamas lacked the capability or intent for such an attack.
The Jericho Wall document was among several Hamas attack plans obtained over the years. A 2016 Defense Ministry memorandum had already indicated Hamas’ intentions to extend confrontations into Israeli territory. The document detailed strategies like rocket attacks and drones to breach the border wall, with Hamas fighters storming into Israel.
The failure to act on these warnings is now seen as one of the worst miscalculations in Israel’s 75-year history, comparable to the intelligence failure of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. This oversight highlights a significant gap in analysis and underestimation of Hamas’ capabilities and intentions.
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