Claim: Former President Donald Trump stated that FBI crime statistics “no longer include data from 30% of the country including the biggest and most violent cities.”
Reasoning: Trump made this claim during a speech at “The People’s Convention” in Detroit on June 15, 2024. He argued that crime statistics cited by President Joe Biden are inaccurate because they exclude data from 30% of the country, specifically major and violent cities. Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly indirectly addressed the claim, highlighting concerns over rising homicide rates in many cities and public perception of crime issues.
Trump’s assertion follows the FBI’s release of preliminary data on June 10, 2024, indicating a significant decrease in violent crime during the first quarter compared to the previous year. This contradicts Trump’s claim of increasing crime, citing incomplete data. AH Datalytics, an independent crime data analysis company, projected a decline in murders from 2022 to 2023 and anticipated further reduction in 2024 based on current trends.
Experts in crime statistics, including Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics, debunk Trump’s claim, noting that while the FBI faced data coverage challenges in 2021 due to a reporting system change, subsequent years saw a return to nearly full data coverage. The FBI employs estimation techniques using comparable jurisdictions to mitigate missing data effects, aligning with independent crime data trends.
Fact or Fiction? Fiction. Trump’s claim that FBI crime statistics exclude data from 30% of the country, including major and violent cities, is false. The FBI’s data coverage returned to near-normal levels after 2021, including comprehensive reporting from major cities like New York and Los Angeles. Independent analyses support ongoing trends reported by the FBI, contradicting claims of significant data gaps affecting crime statistics.
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