Claim via Social Media and endorsed by Elon Musk: A claim circulating online asserts that since August 2023, the number of people arriving each month at the U.S. border exceeds the number of children born to American mothers. This claim is based on a graph showing monthly border encounters.
Reasoning: The data used in the claim is misleading for several reasons. Firstly, the U.S. Border Patrol’s methodology for tracking border encounters changed in March 2020. Prior to this, they recorded “apprehensions” and “expulsions” separately. However, post-March 2020, these figures were combined under the term “encounters.” This change in methodology can affect the interpretation of the data, especially when comparing different time periods.
Furthermore, the term “encounters” includes not only individuals arriving at the border but also those apprehended and deemed inadmissible for entry into the U.S. This means that many of these “encounters” do not result in individuals staying in the country, contrary to the implication of the claim. This is a significant distinction from the birth of children to American mothers, as newborns obviously remain in the country.
The graph also includes a line marking the transition from the Trump to the Biden administration without adequate explanation, suggesting a causal relationship that isn’t substantiated by the data. This can imply changes in immigration patterns due to administrative policies, which is not necessarily the case. The claim fails to recognize that the overall immigration policy has not dramatically changed since 2020.
Fact or Fiction? Fiction. The comparison between monthly border encounters and births to American mothers is misleading. The data on border encounters includes individuals who may not stay in the U.S., unlike newborns, and the change in tracking methodology in 2020, along with the lack of significant changes in immigration policy, renders the comparison misleading.
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