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For the first time ever, the most likely scenario for global temperatures is that they will breach 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming for at least a year within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Wednesday.

Last year’s report by the agency put the odds of temporary warming by 1.5 C above preindustrial levels, a threshold set out for long-term average temperatures in the 2015 Paris Agreement, at about 50-50.

With a 66% chance of temporarily reaching 1.5 C by 2027, “it’s the first time in history that it’s more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5 C,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at Britain’s Met Office Hadley Centre, who worked on the WMO’s latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.

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