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Investors are greeting the third quarter with greater trepidation about a recession, and that makes next Friday’s June jobs report a potentially bigger catalyst for markets than it might otherwise have been.

The jobs report and Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate meeting are expected to highlight the four-day, post-holiday week.

June’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to have slowed from the 390,000 added in May, but still show solid job growth and a strong labor market. According to Dow Jones, economists expect 250,000 payrolls were added in June and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%.

But economists expect to see a slowing in employment data, as the Fed’s tighter rates policy squeezes employers and the economy. There is a chance some of those cracks in the labor market could start to appear on Friday. Some slowing would be seen as a positive, but there’s a balance between a slower, less hot job market and one that has gotten too cool.

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